Logistics shortage: e-commerce absorbs space as vacancy hits record low

Occupancy gained even more momentum in 2024, when vacancy dropped to single digits and continued to decline steadily by roughly two percentage points in the following years. The average market rent in the second quarter of 2026 stands at R$25.08/m², while regions within a 15-kilometer radius, known as last-mile areas, are already recording transactions between R$38 and R$42/m².

Low vacancy and limited supply give landlords broad control over the market, potentially leading not only to higher rents but also to contracts that are more favorable to property owners. Tenants’ bargaining power declines as assets become more attractive and the likelihood of remaining vacant becomes lower. 

As demand rises, supply is trying to keep up. More than 2.2 million m² are expected for this year, with deliveries peaking in the third quarter. Of that total, 1.3 million m² will be delivered in the next half-year, and 40% of the projected area has already been pre-leased. 

The segment that grew the most over the past 12 months was Digital Fulfillment, which now occupies an area 30.77% larger than in the same period of 2025. The largest occupiers have already surpassed traditional transportation and retail players in the country, with the “Top 3” made up of Mercado Livre, Shopee and Amazon, followed by Magalu and Lojas Americanas. The three e-commerce giants also lead the list of the largest leases signed over the past year. 

The scenario is directly reflected in the appreciation of properties, which can already be observed in transactions such as Sanca’s sale of the CL SP Politécnica asset to Zagros for R$5,910.28/m². The property does not yet show any pre-leasing and is scheduled for delivery in the third quarter of 2027. 

The push from e-commerce operations offering 24-hour deliveries across much of the country has accelerated a trend already consolidated by the pandemic. What remains to be seen is whether the market will be able to respond at the same speed at which this demand is advancing.