Inland logistics advances and challenges market pessimism

Sounding the alarm over high interest rates has become almost routine in the market, but a purely financial reading of liquidity cannot, on its own, define competitive advantages. It is a mistake to assume that regions outside the Rio-São Paulo axis are at a competitive disadvantage based solely on interest rates, since the areas once pejoratively dismissed as “rebimbocas da parafuseta” are, in fact, undergoing significant development, according to data from SiiLA’s Market Analytics.

The A, A+ and B logistics condominium market is experiencing its strongest period of the decade, with the lowest vacancy rate and highest market value recorded during the period. This reflects strong demand, further boosted by the expansion of e-commerce operations and the race to offer deliveries within 24 hours in midsized cities and regional hubs.

According to Lessandro Hebert, CEO of Hebert Engenharia, consumer behavior is expected to continue growing and further drive this market. “In the specific case of logistics investments, what we see is an increase in people’s habit of buying online and, at the same time, a growing desire to receive products faster [...] decentralization or regionalization is inevitable, because those who buy one day want to receive their orders the next morning,” he said.

The numbers confirm this perception, and the Southeast is not the only region reflecting this trend. The country’s second-largest logistics market is in the Northeast, with more than 3 million sqm and a vacancy rate of 6.18%. Amid strong regional demand, the largest lease agreements are being signed by e-commerce companies, which are competing for space in these assets.

The South is the region with the largest volume of confirmed future stock for the coming years, with 474,000 sqm currently planned.

Even in the Southeast, the pessimistic narrative surrounding inland regions in São Paulo and Minas Gerais does not hold up. Campinas, one of the main regional hubs, has a vacancy rate of just 4.63%, while Atibaia stands at 1.38%. In Minas Gerais, Juiz de Fora has 64,600 sqm of total stock, with 15,000 sqm still vacant, and the largest share of occupancy coming from the consumer goods sector.

Interest rates rise and fall all the time, and it is clear that liquidity is affected. However, industry experts point out that the real estate market does not react to these movements immediately, since lease terms are longer and are driven much more by inflation than by interest rates themselves.

Hebert believes that boldness is part of the investment routine, but every decision must be supported by consolidated data to portray the market as accurately as possible. “At the end of the day, what matters is the percentage return on invested capital. Of course, in periods of high interest rates, there are those who prefer the comfort of ‘letting their money sleep in the bank,’ but anyone with entrepreneurship in their veins knows that this scenario is cyclical,” he said.