A 12% Vacancy Rate Marks Balance in Mature Real Estate Markets — Here’s Why

In the real estate market, the vacancy rate serves as a barometer of the sector’s health. Far from being just a figure that measures empty spaces, it reflects the flexibility and adaptability of a segment that must always be ready to meet new demands without losing efficiency.

In a delicate balancing act, very low vacancy levels can lead to scarcity and push rental prices upward, while excessively high rates signal oversupply and weak absorption. 

Against this backdrop, a vacancy rate around 12% is often seen as healthy for mature markets: neither a lack of available space nor an excessive surplus, but rather a point of stability that ensures steady activity. 

The logic is that, at this level, expanding companies or those seeking relocation have enough options, while landlords do not need to slash rents drastically to close deals. 

At the same time, a 12% vacancy prevents space shortages from driving unsustainable price hikes that could deter potential tenants. In other words, it is a balance point that preserves property liquidity, provides predictability for investors, and keeps the natural supply-and-demand dynamic in check. 

This reasoning is reinforced by Giancarlo Nicastro, CEO of SiiLA, who defines the 12%–15% range as the market’s balance zone. “Below 12%, landlords gain leverage to increase rents because supply is limited and tenants have few alternatives. It’s the law of supply and demand,” he explains.