Brazil Mall Market Gains Momentum and Draws Investment in 2026
- See industry companies’ and experts’ expectations for this year
The shopping mall segment has consolidated itself as one of the most dynamic areas of Brazil’s commercial real estate market. Vacancy rates have followed a consistent downward trend across all asset classes since the end of the pandemic, now surpassing even pre-crisis levels.
In the high-end segment, data from SiiLA’s shopping intelligence and analytics platform, GROCS, show that vacancy stood at 11.8% at the end of 2017, peaked at 19.6% in the second quarter of 2020—at the height of the pandemic—and has since declined steadily, reaching 7.15% in the third quarter of 2025.
This trajectory sets a positive outlook for 2026. To better understand the sector’s prospects, REsource spoke with ALLOS, one of Brazil’s largest shopping mall platforms, and Marcos Semenzin, partner at Semma, who shared complementary views on the segment’s future.
An Experience-Driven Ecosystem
According to ALLOS, shopping malls are no longer just retail destinations but are evolving into ecosystems centered on experiences, services, and entertainment.
“Consumers have consolidated habits focused on convenience, quality dwell time, and the search for experiences. Shopping malls are no longer just about buying—they are about leisure, dining, services, and social interaction. In São Paulo, the strongest growth in total sales came from leisure and entertainment (+26%), sports (+25%), and other services (+23%),” the company said.
Marcos Semenzin shares this perspective and reinforces the sector’s resilience:
“The sector will continue to grow in a solid manner. Established malls will keep upgrading their tenant mix, while newer developments will adjust to demand.”
Trends for 2026
According to ALLOS, food and beverage, wellness, and the expansion of international and premium brands are expected to gain even more momentum.
“In 2025 alone, in the state of São Paulo, 204 contracts were signed and 175 brands were added to the portfolio, including Adidas, Dengo, Sephora, Track&Field, Levi’s, and LIVE!, reflecting the consistency of the repositioning strategy,” the company noted.
One example of this trend is H&M’s arrival at Parque Dom Pedro mall in Campinas, which now hosts Brazil’s first H&M Home store and the brand’s first operation outside a state capital.
Investment and Macroeconomic Environment
“The sector remains attractive to investors when supported by well-located assets, high occupancy levels, strong tenant mix quality, and operational efficiency,” ALLOS said.
Semenzin agrees that high interest rates still require caution but sees a structural opportunity in the medium term:
“The current environment is not attractive for long-term investments due to interest rates. However, since few malls have been launched in recent years, the supply of vacant retail space tends to shrink, creating a major opportunity.”
Efficiency, Retrofit, or Selective Expansion?
According to ALLOS, the priority should be operational efficiency and asset redevelopment.
“The focus is on enhancing and modernizing assets that are already relevant and well-established. Our CAPEX guidance for 2026 ranges between R$350 million and R$450 million, prioritizing smaller projects with faster returns,” the company said.
ALLOS also noted that, amid high interest rates, greenfield projects are less attractive in the short term.
Semenzin added that there is still room for geographic expansion, particularly in mid-sized cities:
“Mergers and acquisitions should shape the year ahead. Smaller markets that still lack shopping malls are also likely to come onto the radar. Out of Brazil’s 5,500 municipalities, at least 600 have the conditions to support a shopping mall.”
As an example, he cited Votuporanga, in the state of São Paulo, with roughly 100,000 residents, which is set to inaugurate its first shopping mall, already secured with anchor tenants and satellite brands under negotiation.
Comportamento do consumidor
Echoing ALLOS, Semenzin highlighted convenience as one of today’s key drivers of change:
“People want agility and frictionless shopping experiences. Brazilians like to touch and try products, and the lack of standardized sizing reduces confidence in online shopping.”
Risks and Opportunities
Finally, ALLOS pointed out that the main risks include prolonged high interest rates, restricted access to credit, and the ongoing need for operational efficiency and careful tenant mix curation.
On the other hand, the company sees opportunities in the consolidation of shopping malls as experience-driven platforms, the growth of categories such as food and beverage, convenience, wellness, and international brands, as well as redevelopment projects that increase foot traffic and average ticket size.
