One of the strongest points raised by José is the imbalance between where people live and where jobs are concentrated, especially in São Paulo.

He points to a study that illustrates the disparity: while the outskirts would have “one job for every five people,” downtown São Paulo would concentrate “20 jobs for every resident.” In practice, that equation forces millions of people into long, expensive, and unproductive commutes every day.

For José, urban sprawl reduces quality of life, increases emissions, and imposes a structural cost on the public sector, which must continuously invest in infrastructure and social services in increasingly distant areas, while the city center remains equipped with ready-made networks that are nonetheless underutilized.

The vacancy rate in downtown São Paulo has followed a continuous upward trajectory since the 1st quarter of 2016, when it stood at 7.75%. According to SiiLA’s latest analysis, referring to the 4th quarter of 2025, the indicator reached 15.35%, reinforcing the ongoing emptying of the region.

Another clear sign of this trend is the cumulative net absorption over the past ten years, which remains negative at –4,227 sq m, highlighting the center’s difficulty in retaining and attracting tenants throughout the period.

Unlike other corporate submarkets in the city, downtown São Paulo has not been able to recover after the severe stress caused by the pandemic. The area recorded negative net absorption for four consecutive years (from 2020 to 2023), extending a vacancy cycle that has yet to be reversed.

Finally, market rent behavior further reinforces this stagnation. After reaching R$ 41.03 in 2016, values rose slightly in 2023 (R$ 47.22) and 2024 (R$ 47.78), but declined again and ended 2025 at R$ 45.40. The 10-year average remains very low, at just R$ 43.70.

Although the discussion is often framed as a matter of retrofitting or zoning incentives, José argues that the core issue is permanence — and continuous urban life.

In his view, reoccupation can only be sustained if there is a real shift in how the center is used, with activities capable of keeping foot traffic alive beyond business hours.

“There’s no point in any of this if you don’t bring people to stay after 6 p.m. Because then crime takes over,” he says.

This perspective reinforces the idea that city centers cannot be reactivated through office space alone — and that commercial real estate must view reoccupation as an ecosystem: housing, jobs, services, leisure, retail, culture, and public safety.

From that initial activation, the dynamic expands. The center begins to behave once again like an “organic” city, with social diversity and the presence of different income levels and age groups.

For commercial real estate, this process tends to benefit retail and services first and, as foot traffic consolidates, may boost hospitality and — in the medium term — reposition the office market in central districts.

Despite growing municipal willingness to reactivate central areas in different capitals, José argues that the main barrier lies outside the local sphere.

In his view, downtown areas will only scale as a real estate thesis if Brazil addresses structural bottlenecks that currently prevent retrofits from gaining momentum, such as: the lack of a specific technical standard for refurbished buildings; financing challenges and collateral valuation issues; accumulated tax liabilities...

“A bank can’t lend money when the collateral is worth less than what it is providing. But the technical standard and the calculation used to appraise the property are based on what exists in that location — and many times it just doesn’t work,” he says.

The result is that retrofitting, although often cited as the main tool for reoccupation, still faces major barriers to scaling.

José says the market can do it — but cannot multiply it.

The problem, according to him, is that long development cycles combined with legal uncertainty raise the cost of capital and reduce investment appeal, especially when compared to greenfield projects, where developers buy land and build from scratch with greater predictability.

In retrofits, beyond acquiring the building, investors face a licensing, compliance, and regularization process involving multiple stakeholders and requirements.

To illustrate how incentives can unlock reoccupation, José points to a strategy adopted in Rio de Janeiro based on the transfer of development rights.

The mechanism works like a trade: by building in the city center, developers receive the right to build additional area in other parts of the city, usually in more valued districts.

According to him, the model creates a “Robin Hood effect,” in which part of the value generated in premium areas subsidizes downtown revitalization — without requiring direct public funding.