Fact or Fake: Do Rising Interest Rates Always Bring Down the Real Estate Market?

This logic makes more sense when discussing individual homebuyers who rely on mortgage financing. Banks lend money and charge interest, so when the Selic rate increases, mortgage payments rise and demand for residential properties declines. This effect directly impacts the residential sector.

In the commercial market, the dynamics are different. Companies and investors do not buy offices or warehouses the same way families finance a home. What matters here is the cost of capital — how much it costs for a developer or investor to secure the resources needed to purchase or build a property. Higher interest rates do increase this cost, but they also slow down new developments, reducing future supply and often increasing the value of existing, well-located properties.

Another key point is that the commercial real estate market operates in long cycles. A rise in the Selic rate may temporarily delay the start of new projects, but developments already underway continue until completion. The impact is always lagged, and once interest rates drop again, development activity naturally picks up. The market doesn’t “cool down”; it adjusts cyclically.

A clear example is the logistics segment. When the Selic falls, purchasing power rises, boosting consumption. Retail expands, companies grow their operations, and demand for logistics warehouses increases. As activity grows, the government tends to raise interest rates again to control the pace — and the cycle begins anew.

“Among the sectors, corporate offices have felt the greatest impact, with larger discounts in the secondary market. The logistics segment, however, remains resilient, followed by shopping malls when we look at physical assets. Logistics warehouses continue performing well, with some funds issuing new shares, and shopping malls have seen several fund-to-fund transactions. Prices still show small discounts but much lower than those seen in the office sector,” Barbosa explains.