Fact or Fake: Have warehouses become Brazil’s most “defensive” asset?

According to the executive, the segment’s resilience is mainly concentrated in the newest Class A developments, designed to meet specific operational needs.

“Especially new launches with features tailored to each operation. E-commerce, offshore, and structures for smaller industries are the main drivers.”

The point is relevant. The Brazilian market still carries a large stock of older warehouses, many built in the 1970s and 1980s. According to him, these assets no longer meet today’s technical requirements.

“The vast majority of warehouses in the country are outdated.”

In other words, defensiveness is not homogeneous. It is concentrated in modern assets with high technical standards and alignment with current logistics demands.

Another pillar of the thesis lies in the contractual structure.

“Without a doubt, atypical contracts significantly reduce risk.”

Built-to-suit agreements and long-term leases, often with strong penalties for early termination, provide predictable cash flow — something that has become less common in segments such as office space, still affected by the reconfiguration of hybrid work.

This contractual structure is one of the main arguments for classifying logistics warehouses as a resilient asset.

When asked about current vacancy and absorption levels, the executive says that, at this moment, the indicators support the “safe haven” narrative.

The boost from e-commerce remains relevant, but he highlights an important nuance: the sector does not rely exclusively on this engine.

“E-commerce is the strongest driver, but we cannot forget services, industry, and the oil and gas segment.”

This diversification of demand helps mitigate concentration risks, although he acknowledges that risks could emerge if the market becomes too dependent on large digital operators.

Even if considered defensive, the segment is not immune to the macroeconomic environment.

“The market always faces pressure from high interest rates and higher taxes on rental income.”

According to him, rising borrowing costs and a heavier tax burden ultimately pressure rental prices and impact asset valuations.

Still, the interest from REIT-like vehicles and institutional investors reinforces the perception of solidity in the sector.

In the executive’s view, current cap rates reflect less a structural perception of low risk and more a market factor.

“I see a shortage of high-quality assets.”

In other words, the compression of returns would be linked to the limited supply of Class A warehouses rather than a structural reduction of risk in the sector.