28.2 million square meters — that's the current stock of industrial properties across Brazil, across all classes. After a period of rapid expansion between 2020 and 2022, the market has shifted toward a more horizontal growth pattern. This shift doesn’t signal a slowdown, but rather a phase of maturation.

Maurício Nascimento, Industrial & Logistics Manager at Colliers, explains that this maturing process is benefiting Built-to-Suit (BTS) developments.

“The recent appreciation of Built-to-Suit projects isn’t simply replacing speculative developments. Instead, it’s a natural response to the current landscape of costs, risks, and returns,” he says.

Nascimento notes that the sector’s maturation is happening alongside rising construction costs — not only due to materials and labor, but also because of the increasing value of strategic land and the high cost of capital, influenced by the Selic interest rate.

“As a result, speculative development now requires higher rents to be feasible, which limits it to premium regions with location pressure, product scarcity, and high liquidity,” he comments.

In this scenario, BTS projects have gained importance because they offer what investors value most during uncertain times: predictability.

“The combination of pre-signed contracts, longer lease terms, and virtually no vacancy risk makes BTS a highly effective model for anchoring new developments — especially in regions where demand absorption isn’t immediate. For tenants, BTS is also strategic, enabling custom layouts, operational efficiencies, and more effective use of space — increasingly important features in complex and integrated logistics chains,” explains the Colliers executive.

Data from SiiLA shows that the market recently went through a peak in new leases and asset deliveries. Now, some companies have started to downsize and relocate certain logistics operations — such as Mercado Livre, which returned part of the space it occupied at LOG Fortaleza III, resulting in a negative net absorption of 552 m².

On the other hand, the retailer is investing in BTS assets, especially in a large-scale project with Zolver on the Bandeirantes highway. The e-commerce company is also developing a build-to-suit facility in Araucária, Paraná.

“In my view, this shift represents a healthy maturation of the sector. We’ve moved from a model based on demand expectations to a more rational cycle, driven by data, contracts, and long-term planning. The historically low vacancy rate shows the market is adapting well to this new logic — and that there’s room both for well-located speculative projects and for BTS solutions aligned with the specific needs of large operators,” he concludes.