VALOR ECONÔMICO - After growth during the COVID-19 pandemic and a drop in 2022, the market for warehouses and industrial properties in Brazil is recovering in 2023. While e-commerce competes with physical stores, returning spaces, the industry fills returned spaces, boosting the sector. Expectations of a fall in the Selic rate also favor investments.

According to data from SiiLA, from 2019 to 2023, the sum of spaces rented, that is, gross absorption in Brazil, was 2.26 million sqm in 2019. In 2020, already with the pandemic, there was a 40% increase in this rate, with 3.2 million sqm occupied.

In 2021, at the height of the market, gross absorption reached a record of 4.49 million sqm, a 40% increase. The situation reversed in 2022, with the easing of the pandemic, where e-commerce returned spaces, which caused a 13% retraction in the gross absorption rate, reflecting 3.8 million sqm rented.

This year, the gross absorption rate so far is 1.9 million sqm, indicating that the market remains hot. According to Giancarlo Nicastro, CEO of SiiLA, the current scenario suggests that the year should end with a similar space occupation to that of 2022, between 3.5 million and 4 million sqm of gross absorption.

SiiLA data also reveal that the total inventory of spaces in Brazil is 24.1 million sqm, with a availability of 8.29%, which is equivalent to 2 million sqm. Most of this space, about 12 million sqm, is concentrated in the state of São Paulo, which leads the market with an availability of 9.73% (1.2 million sqm). The rest is distributed between Rio de Janeiro, Pará, and Rio Grande do Sul.

Cushman & Wakefield, a specialist in high-end warehouse rentals, believes that the pandemic has brought significant changes to the sector. According to Eric Ammirati, manager of industrial and logistics transactions, companies' need to rent warehouses to maintain their operations has boosted the market, resulting in a high speed in the delivery of works, with about 70% of the warehouses under construction in the period already contracted.

In the state of São Paulo alone, the company has already reached 70% of the leasing volume of the three best years in history (2013, 2020, and 2022), when it exceeded 1 million sqm rented. "We are surpassing the mark of 700,000 to 800,000 sqm, which indicates that the year will end positively." If the vacancy rate is considered, which reflects returned spaces, Cushman & Wakefield is also doing well. Today it has a 10.8% vacancy rate in São Paulo, a rate similar to the national one (10%), with 15 million sqm available. "Up to 12%, the rate does not affect investors' plans and allows for investment expansion," he says.

Many space returns occur due to the "flight to quality," where companies exchange old facilities for modern and efficient ones. According to GLP, a developer and operator of industrial properties, top-tier properties represent only 16% of the total stock in the country, showing significant potential for modernization.

Present in eight states (95% in the Rio-São Paulo axis), GLP has 4.6 million sqm, with 3.3 million sqm built (83 properties) and a 1.3 million sqm pipeline for development. The forecast for investment in the next three years is R$ 2.4 billion.

With 94% occupancy in the first quarter, GLP plans to accelerate last-mile projects in the city of São Paulo. "We will prioritize ESG themes in our strategy, with an emphasis on positive social impact, reducing carbon footprint, and conscientious use of natural resources," says Mauro Dias, president of GLP Brazil.

Vacancy is also not a problem for Bresco. According to Rafael Fonseca, partner and CFO of the company, zero vacancy is due to the quality and location of the portfolio. Currently, the company has 23 developments with about 700,000 sqm of gross leasable area (GLA), and the sectors that demand the most are pharmaceutical and logistics operators. For the next three years, Bresco has 11 new projects under development, totaling more than 400,000 sqm of GLA and R$ 1.5 billion in investments.

Present in the southern region, Capital Realty has four industrial properties, about 500,000 sqm of built-up area, and a 7% vacancy rate. For Rodrigo Demeterco, CEO of the company, this rate was lower and increased slightly due to the restructuring of some clients.

The prospect of a reduction in the Selic rate in the coming months is seen as an opportunity by Capital Realty, which expects an improvement in investment capacity and increased consumption, generating more demand for its developments. The company plans to invest around R$ 100 million in the delivery of a 45,000 sqm expansion in the Itajaí (SC) asset.

In Brazil, the three main segments that demanded the most logistics warehouses in the semester, according to SiiLA, were logistics transport (490,000 sqm), e-commerce (311,000 sqm), and the automotive industry (129,000 sqm). In the southern region, according to Capital Realty, e-commerce, retail, distributors (wine), logistics operators, and the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors had the highest demand.

Specialized in triple A (AAA) industrial properties, Golgi stands out for its environmental concern. Its portfolio is predominantly composed of assets with Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (Leed) certification, a tool that seeks to encourage and accelerate the adoption of sustainable construction practices. There are 1.3 million sqm in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, the Federal District, Rio Grande do Sul, and Paraná, of which almost 500,000 sqm are close to the city of São Paulo. With 60 tenants, Golgi serves the pharmaceutical and automotive industries, e-commerce, and logistics operators.

For the future, the strategy is to expand operations to other regions of the country through the purchase of ready-made assets. "We have already bought a portfolio in the South and plan to do the same in the Northeast," says Roberto Miranda de Lima, partner at Autonomy Investimentos, which controls Golgi. In the coming years, the company plans to invest R$ 1 billion in the construction of new industrial properties.

Originally published in Valor Setorial - Infraestrutura e Logística magazine and website