Caldeira emphasizes that it's not just the company itself that matters—but also the environment in which it operates. International trade policies, such as the U.S. tariffs applied to nearly all countries, can have ripple effects on the lease insurance market.

For foreign companies, the macroeconomic landscape is even more critical. Trade tensions impact exchange rate volatility, while protectionist policies—such as those implemented by Donald Trump—directly affect companies that rely on foreign inputs.

“We’re always paying attention to that [macroeconomy]. Everyone involved in credit analysis becomes more cautious and tends to apply higher risk premiums,” says Caldeira. “With the dollar fluctuating and tariffs piling up, the market is tense and in a wait-and-see mode, hoping things settle down.”

She adds that since this is a relatively new situation, the full effects of protectionist measures have yet to be seen. The more a company is exposed to international markets—especially if it relies on imported materials or products—the more likely it is to be impacted.

Recently, Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China). The protectionist measures have already prompted Amazon to cancel purchases from China and caused machine manufacturer Haas to cut production. Data collection company Vizion has also reported a global drop in container bookings and a 64% decline in U.S. imports.

A company’s financial history is the main factor for determining lease insurance. But what happens when the company is new to the country? Without a local track record, it becomes difficult to access credit. In these cases, alternative forms of guarantees come into play.

“Capitalization bonds. We’re seeing growing use of this option. These industrial properties are often owned by funds and investors who typically have a higher risk appetite and are willing to accept a deposit,” Caldeira says.

She acknowledges the difficulties new companies face when entering Brazil. Many arrive during periods of high demand and lack even basic local infrastructure.

“Some didn’t even have a CNPJ [company registration number] but had capital and investors backing them. That’s why capitalization bonds are so useful—they have no upper limit. A cash deposit, for instance, is capped at three months of rent, while the bond has no such ceiling.”

According to Brazil’s federal government business registry, 77,000 new companies were opened in 2024. Of the 22.7 million active companies, 370,000 operate in the Transportation and Logistics sector.

Data from SiiLA’s Market Analytics platform shows that logistics and transportation companies account for 31% of industrial properties leasing across the country.