Only 58% of Planned Industrial Properties Were Delivered in 2024

Bruno Ackermann and Giancarlo Nicastro discuss the numbers and share insights on last year’s deliveries

Bruno Ackermann, Partner and Head of Logistics at Cy Capital

By: SiiLA News

02/12/2025

Expectations don’t always match reality. Sometimes, we are surprised, but the market is not an exact science. SiiLA’s intelligence team analyzes and calculates, every quarter, the projects scheduled for delivery within a given period. However, as mentioned, no forecast is infallible.

In São Paulo’s industrial properties market, approximately 820,000 square meters were delivered throughout 2024. At the beginning of the year, the projected volume was 1.41 million square meters, meaning that only 58% of the expected supply was actually completed.

For Giancarlo Nicastro, CEO of SiiLA, this scenario can be interpreted in two ways. On the positive side, the market remained balanced, as deliveries depend on factors such as approvals and demand. As a result, there was no surplus of new developments beyond the sector’s needs.

"Between 2023 and 2024, vacancy rates decreased from 11% to 8.9%, meaning spaces are being occupied. The 58% completion rate can be seen as a positive sign for the real estate market, as it demonstrates a balance between supply and demand. The market remained supplied without an excess of new projects," he explains.

By: SiiLA

On the other hand, Nicastro points out a downside, particularly affecting developers. "This situation is the result of various factors, such as approval challenges, construction delays, changes in municipal regulations, and other similar issues."

A total of 19 developments were delivered in 2024, with five in the fourth quarter alone. The most recent were Golgi Mauá, adding 116,400 m², and Phase 2 of Cy.Log Guarulhos, which contributed another 107,000 m² to the inventory of A+ and A assets in the market.

What to Expect for 2025?

Bruno Ackermann, Partner and Head of Logistics at Cy Capital, a company that delivered projects in 2024, told REsource that new deliveries in 2025 may face greater challenges due to interest rates.

"Last year, the gap between projected and actual deliveries was significant, but I don’t believe interest rates were the main reason. They may have played a role, but more technical factors had a greater impact. However, this year and possibly next year, interest rates are expected to have a stronger effect, as they directly influence investment decisions," he explains.

Ackermann highlights that the impact of economic factors on the industrial warehouse market occurs with a certain delay.

"For example, the warehouses delivered last year were likely started the year before or even earlier. This means that the interest rates in effect at that time influenced those deliveries. Meanwhile, last year’s high-interest rates are likely to impact this year’s or next year’s completions," he concludes.

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Founded in 2015, SiiLA is the industry leading REsource for comprehensive commercial real estate market insights, news and events across Latin America. The SiiLA suite of innovative products drive greater accuracy, efficiency, and strategic advantages for top players in the commercial real estate industry.