Rainho sees 2026 as a Year of Growth for Brazil’s FII Market, Albeit With Some Caveats

For 2026, the scenario combines optimism with prudence. Expectations point to a more dynamic first half, followed by a second half marked by political and electoral uncertainty. 

“The World Cup and the election tend to generate volatility. That’s why the strategy is to accelerate whatever is possible in the first half,” the manager says. Even so, the view is that next year could match or even outperform 2025. 

One of the main positive drivers on the radar is the trajectory of the benchmark interest rate. Market perception suggests there are more forces pushing for a decline in the Selic than for keeping it at elevated levels. A lower opportunity cost tends to particularly benefit equity-based real estate funds, which compete directly with fixed income. 

Among structural trends, Rainho highlights the ongoing consolidation of the industry. Large asset managers have led merger and acquisition activity, resulting in increasingly larger funds, with assets totaling several billions of reais. While this trend brings gains in liquidity and diversification, it also raises questions about the survival of small and mid-sized managers. 

“We’ve seen, above all, large firms such as Pátria being very active in M&A, repeatedly acquiring assets and platforms. This process has two sides. On one hand, it’s positive, because it pushes the industry toward increasingly larger funds, with assets in the range of BRL 4 billion, BRL 6 billion, or even BRL 10 billion, which is very different from the market’s profile just a few years ago. That improves liquidity, scale, and diversification,” he explains. 

Rainho also warns about the risks of such movements. “On the other hand, there’s uncertainty about how mid-sized and smaller managers will survive in this environment. In my view, a healthier industry is one that has diversity in managers, models, and strategies. What we’re seeing now is very rapid consolidation, whether due to the impact of higher interest rates—which showed that managing capital is not simple—or due to the M&A activity itself. The number of managers has declined significantly, and that is currently the main point of attention and the biggest question about how the sector will be structured going forward.” 

Despite the challenges, the outlook for the market remains constructive. The combination of taxation on other financial products, such as LCIs, and the tax exemption on FII distributions keeps the sector attractive to retail investors. Currently, the average investment per taxpayer ranges between BRL 10,000 and BRL 20,000, reinforcing the role of real estate funds as a source of recurring income—almost a modern substitute for savings accounts. 

Rainho says the strategy for 2026 includes expanding offshore products, which have seen strong demand among high-net-worth investors, and developing new funds in the office and urban income segments. 

“There is still a large volume of property outside the real estate fund ecosystem. Our goal is to bring part of these assets to the stock exchange, expanding access for the average investor,” Rainho says. 

The strong performance of São Paulo’s office market reinforces this thesis. In 2025, the city posted the best results in its historical series, with high absorption and rental increases above the average. For managers, this scenario creates a window of opportunity to structure new products and deepen the integration between the physical real estate market and capital markets.