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Overall, 2025 was a challenging year — at least that’s how Nessim Sarfati, founder of Barzel, sees it. His company operates in the real estate investment and asset-management space, and he highlights several factors that defined the year.
“It was a tough year. With interest rates this high, it became very difficult to identify and secure real estate opportunities that could compete with the CDI rate. Rates are extremely elevated, so if a deal offers a low return, why would an investor commit to it?” he explains.
The search for deals that are truly “special” made the year even more complicated. In 2025, Brazil’s Selic rate reached the highest level in its history — 15% per year. The increase, set by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), aims to control inflation and realign inflation expectations.
Higher interest rates make credit and financing more expensive, meaning mortgages, consumer credit, corporate loans, and working capital all become costlier.
“Even so, we found opportunities in logistics and office assets. We managed to close some deals largely because the market is heating up. Office occupancy is rising, and logistics continues to perform well, which boosts investor confidence,” he says.
Despite 2025’s economic challenges, SiiLA data shows positive movement in both office and logistics segments. Net absorption in São Paulo reached 259,000 m² in A+, A and B office buildings during the first nine months of the year, while industrial properties posted 754,000 m² of net absorption over the same period.
Sarfati notes that 2026 will also be difficult. He acknowledges forecasts pointing to rate cuts but prefers to remain cautious.
“I’m not an economist — I’ll wait for the Selic to move as it needs to move. Many experts say the Selic will end next year at around 11%. But we also see that the government doesn’t appear willing to curb spending, especially in an election year. So I’m not sure whether the environment will be favorable for the Selic to drop that much,” he says.
According to the Barzel founder, if the Selic does decline, 2026 could bring significant opportunities — but caution is essential.
“My view is that rates might fall, but at a slower pace than the market is expecting. As long as government spending and revenue remain out of balance, there’s no room for sharply lowering the Selic,” he argues.
Summing up, Sarfati expects “the first half of 2026 to look a lot like the end of 2025 — no major changes early on. In the second half, with elections approaching, things become uncertain — but opportunities should emerge. If interest rates fall, investors will come back. But I can’t build a strategy counting on that. I need to plan as conservatively as possible. If things improve, great — but I have to prepare in the safest way,” he concludes.











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