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Santa Catarina is the most expensive market in which to build a logistics park among the 17 analyzed by SiiLA. Its estimated replacement cost reaches R$4,106 per square meter of gross leasable area (GLA), ahead of São Paulo at R$3,893 and Alagoas at R$3,795. At the other end of the range is Paraíba, at R$2,406 per square meter. The gap between the highest and lowest costs is approximately 71%.
For a hypothetical development with 10,000 square meters of leasable area, that gap would represent roughly R$17 million. The comparison follows the study’s assumptions and includes land acquisition, earthworks, construction, additional development expenses and contingencies.
Land prices help explain regional differences. Alagoas has the highest average land price in the sample, at R$787 per square meter of land. Although the state has one of the lowest construction costs, it ranks third in total replacement cost.
“A warehouse’s value lies in the income it generates. That is why knowing how much it costs to build is not enough. The right question is whether the rent the market pays today justifies that cost. When the property’s value, calculated from its income, exceeds its replacement cost, there is room for new projects. When it falls below, the market is signaling that it does not yet pay enough to justify building there,” says Giancarlo Nicastro, CEO of SiiLA.
Higher costs, however, do not automatically translate into higher sale values. By comparing replacement costs with values estimated from market rental income, SiiLA identifies positive spreads in 14 of the 17 markets, assuming a 7.5% cap rate. The average spread is R$457 per square meter.
Santa Catarina has the largest negative spread. Its estimated sale value is R$3,540 per square meter, approximately R$567 below replacement cost. Alagoas and Goiás also have estimated values below replacement cost, with negative spreads of approximately R$293 and R$149 per square meter, respectively.
In Amazonas, the opposite is true. The estimated sale value reaches R$4,187 per square meter, compared with a replacement cost of R$2,746. The positive spread of R$1,441 per square meter is the largest in the study, equivalent to 52.5% of replacement cost. Paraíba and Minas Gerais follow, with spreads of R$928 and R$918 per square meter.
São Paulo, Brazil’s leading logistics property market, has a more moderate positive spread of R$433 per square meter, equivalent to 11.1% of replacement cost. Paraná is close to break-even: its modeled value exceeds replacement cost by just R$38 per square meter, or 1.1%.











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