Threatened leadership: TikTok Shop growth challenges logistics edge of Mercado Livre

The expansion of social commerce challenges the country’s largest occupier of industrial properties and reshapes the competitive dynamics of online retail

Ariel Szarfsztejn, Global CEO of Mercado Livre

By: SiiLA News

02/25/2026

The rapid advance of TikTok Shop in Brazil is beginning to redraw the balance of power in e-commerce and raise red flags among major industry players such as Mercado Livre. Launched in the country in May 2025, the social commerce platform reached US$46.1 million in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in August, after generating just US$1 million in its debut month — a 4,500% increase in only three months, according to data compiled by Tabcut.

This pace of expansion is already translating into a measurable impact on Mercado Livre, the leader in Latin American e-commerce. According to a report by Itaú BBA, in its first five months of operation in Brazil, TikTok Shop’s business already represents around 2% of Mercado Livre’s domestic sales, with half of that volume coming from the marketplace tab, in a competitive environment described by the bank as “the toughest ever seen.”

Part of this traction is anchored in the “discovery-driven shopping” model, which integrates content, entertainment, and transaction into a single journey. Data released by TikTok itself indicate that, in the first five months of operation, average daily revenue (GMV) increased 26-fold, while the number of creators with monthly sales grew 12 times and active sellers rose 11 times. Live streams have emerged as the main conversion lever, with a 143% increase in GMV generated by live shopping during Black Friday, according to the platform.

A recent study by Klavi, released in February 2026, reinforces the shift in consumer behavior. TikTok Shop already surpasses Temu in number of consumers and transactions in Brazilian e-commerce, driven by greater capillarity and impulse purchases, albeit with lower average ticket sizes. The movement suggests that, even at an early stage, the Chinese platform is no longer merely an emerging bet and is becoming a structural source of competitive pressure on incumbent players.

Mercado Livre and TikTok Shop landscape

Since mid-May, Mercado Livre’s shares have fluctuated and, over a 12-month period, have fallen by around 16% on the NASDAQ. Within the Ibovespa, the company’s stock declined 24.5% over the same period. According to JP Morgan, the company’s shares had been trading below benchmark, only recently being upgraded from neutral to buy.

The upgrade is not solely due to Mercado Livre’s own merits, but also to a more favorable competitive environment. Stefan Furtado, regional manager at Manhattan Associates, does not believe in an immediate replacement of Mercado Livre by companies following the social commerce model, such as TikTok Shop, at least in the short term.

“Social commerce is expected to grow very significantly over the coming years, but not necessarily to replace players like Mercado Livre, at least not in the short term. What we should see is a redistribution of prominence within e-commerce, with social networks capturing a larger share of impulse purchases and product discovery journeys,” he explains.

Furtado adds that the main advantage of Mercado Livre and other more traditional players lies in their logistics networks. “Mercado Livre and other large marketplaces still have important structural advantages, especially in logistics, scale, and consumer trust — factors that take years to build.”

Data from SiiLA show that Mercado Livre occupies 2.1 million square meters of industrial properties across Brazil. Today, the company is the country’s largest logistics occupier and continues to expand its footprint. However, while Mercado Livre grows, competitors are also gaining ground. Shopee is also expanding rapidly and is approaching its first one million square meters of occupied space.

Within this equation, TikTok Shop still does not disclose logistics figures. The platform currently operates with partners to handle logistics, meaning it does not directly lease warehouses nor operate its own distribution centers. Its greatest strength, however, lies in the human factor: impulse buying.

“At the same time, platforms like TikTok Shop are drastically reducing the distance between inspiration and purchase, creating an extremely powerful model for certain categories and consumption profiles,” says the Manhattan Associates regional manager.

Looking ahead, Furtado believes the most likely scenario is one of complementary coexistence, in which the competitive edge will lie not in the sales channel itself, but in the ability to serve consumers more immediately.

“Companies that manage to align marketing, sales, and fulfillment with speed and precision are likely to come out ahead, regardless of where the shopping journey begins,” he concludes.

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