SiiLA Data Shows Office Vacancy Fell in Neighborhoods Where Crime Increased
- Empirical studies, both in Brazil and abroad, have linked increased pedestrian and population flows to higher crime rates.
- Research also shows that most crimes affect the ambient population — that is, people who move through the area on a daily basis
According to figures recently released by São Paulo’s Public Security Secretariat (SSP), at least ten neighborhoods in the city of São Paulo recorded an increase in robberies and thefts between July 2025 and July 2026. Relatedly, the areas that ranked highest in terms of the increase in these types of crimes are precisely those where office vacancy rates declined between the second quarter of last year and the same period this year.
Itaim Bibi is a case in point. The local police precinct (15th Police District) recorded a 28% increase in robberies and thefts during the period analyzed. As of the middle of last year, the office vacancy rate in the area, according to SiiLA’s Market Analytics, stood at 11.58%. By July this year, the same rate had fallen to just 6.51%.
In the JK area, which is also covered by the 15th Police District (Itaim Bibi), the vacancy rate was 9.61% in July 2025. Today, it stands at 4.03%. In other words, with more offices occupied, the flow of people in the area is greater, which may help explain the increase in reported crimes.
The data show that this correlation occurs in virtually all of the areas analyzed by SiiLA where an increase in robberies and thefts was recorded over the past year.
São Paulo’s 4th Police District, for example, whose jurisdiction covers the central area of the city — referred to as Centro in SiiLA’s analysis — is another example of this connection. There, crime increased by 26% between July 2025 and the same month in 2026. Meanwhile, office vacancy in the area, according to Market Analytics, declined from 14.85% in the second quarter of 2025 to 13.32% in the second quarter of 2026.
Cidade Monções, which encompasses the Berrini CBD and part of the Chucri Zaidan area, is another neighborhood where this relationship can be observed. There, 13.6% more incidents were recorded, while the vacancy rate fell from 18.64% in Q1 2025 to 12.33% in Q2 2026 in Chucri Zaidan, and from 15.55% in Q1 2025 to 13.36% in Q2 2026 in Berrini.
Empirical studies, both in Brazil and abroad, have linked increased pedestrian and population flows to higher crime rates.
In addition, the study “Beyond the Residence: Ambient Population and Crime in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area” shows that most crimes affect the ambient population — that is, people who move through the area on a daily basis. A smaller share of crimes is committed against the resident population, meaning those who actually live in the area.
