Investors seek assets capable of turning bottlenecks into returns

Logistics stands out in Brazil for its balance of occupancy, rents and liquidity, while data centers offer the greatest growth potential. For Marco Ribeiro, director at Capright, identifying where real scarcity exists will be critical to investment decisions in 2026

Marco Ribeiro, director at Capright

By: SiiLA News

09/02/2026

Investors are expected to remain selective in the real estate market. With the cost of capital still high and different sectors competing for investment, decisions are likely to depend less on which segment is attracting the most attention and more on each asset’s ability to generate returns.

For Marco Ribeiro, director at Capright, this will be one of the main criteria separating the strongest opportunities from the rest.

“It won’t be about the best narrative. It will be about who can turn real scarcity into earnings growth in an environment where the cost of capital remains high,” he says.

SiiLA data shows that logistics is currently one of the most balanced real estate segments in Brazil. São Paulo ended the second quarter of 2026 with 14.1 million sq. m of Class A+ and A logistics properties. Even with the delivery of 188,000 sq. m of new developments, vacancy fell to 5.66%.

At the same time, net absorption reached 410,000 sq. m, while market rents increased to R$27.89 per sq. m per month.

According to Ribeiro, the decline in vacancy is particularly significant because it occurred despite the addition of new supply.

“This isn’t a market tightening because of a lack of construction. Demand is outpacing new supply,” he says.

In Rio de Janeiro, vacancy also declined, reaching 9.80%. With no new deliveries during the quarter, the reduction was driven directly by the absorption of previously available space.

Data centers are growing rapidly, but require greater scrutiny

While logistics currently offers a more balanced combination of risk and liquidity, data centers have the greatest growth potential.

In Latin America, colocation capacity — a data center model in which multiple companies share the infrastructure of the same facility — increased from 384 MW in 2019 to 1,105 MW in 2025, representing average annual growth of 16%. Artificial intelligence has accelerated this trend, but expansion was already being driven by cloud services, streaming, 5G and the broader digitalization of the economy.

The main challenge is no longer simply finding demand. Available power, grid connectivity, permitting and delivery timelines are increasingly important to project feasibility.

“By the end of 2025, Digital Realty’s projects under construction were 80% pre-leased, Iron Mountain’s were 88% and Equinix’s were 72%. Across Latin America, colocation inventory under construction was 26% pre-leased at the regional level, but in São Paulo and Barueri that figure reaches 74%. In other words, in mature markets, much of the inventory is already committed before delivery,” Ribeiro explains.

Since the third quarter of 2022, cap rates for U.S. data center REITs have fallen by 66 basis points, even as yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 92 basis points.

In addition, rapid technological change could shorten the useful life of some facilities. Changes in data center equipment, computing density per rack and cooling systems may require upgrades even in relatively new assets.

“The mistake isn’t believing in the need for digital infrastructure. It’s assuming that any project, anywhere, at any price, will be a winner,” Ribeiro says.

Secondary markets gain ground when they offer real advantages

The search for opportunities may also lead investors beyond the largest real estate hubs. For Ribeiro, however, these decisions need to be supported by genuine competitive advantages rather than expectations of higher returns alone.

Ribeiro sees data centers as offering the greatest growth potential today, while logistics provides a more balanced combination of liquidity and risk. The single-family rental market, known as SFR, meanwhile, stands out as a more defensive alternative in the United States.

Rather than simply choosing the sector of the moment, the challenge for investors in 2026 will therefore be to identify assets capable of addressing real bottlenecks while still generating returns.

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