Inflation outruns warehouses: rental values trail IPCA over the past decade

There are two periods to consider: the past five years — as outlined above — and the past ten years. In the longer-term scenario, transacted rents have underperformed inflation, unlike the more recent period.

Over the past decade, inflation rose 80%, while transacted prices increased only 54.46%. The stagnation is evident: in 2015, the average transacted rent was R$20.18/sqm; by 2022, that figure had dropped to R$19.27/sqm. Rather than rising, rents regressed.

Visually, the average rent chart reveals that prices remained nearly flat for years, only picking up more significantly from 2023 onward. In contrast, the inflation curve followed a consistent upward path.

On the other hand, vacancy rates and absorption indicators have remained positive. Over the past decade, vacant space has steadily decreased, while new leases and new supply have grown.

It was in 2023 that the landscape began to shift. The rise of major e-commerce players, economic expansion, and stronger demand for logistics space led to price increases driven by supply and demand — not inflation.

In this context, rent hikes were not necessarily tied to the IPCA but rather to market dynamics — a natural form of self-regulation, more economic than monetary.

Taking a broader perspective, leases signed ten years ago saw adjustments below inflation. While the past five years show market growth above inflation, it still lags behind the full appreciation potential the sector could have achieved.