Inflation outruns warehouses: rental values trail IPCA over the past decade
- Between 2015 and 2022, average rental prices remained virtually stagnant, with a visible recovery only from 2023 onward. Over the past five years, demand has driven a turnaround.
Data from SiiLA's Market Analytics platform shows that market rent grew 42% over the past five years, rising from R$16.34/sqm in 2020 to R$28.47/sqm in 2025. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate fell 45% nationwide, from 14.16% to 7.67%.
During this same period, average rental prices also rose — by 61.33% — from R$19.32/sqm to R$31.17/sqm. From 2020 to 2025, this growth aligns with the benchmark set by the IPCA (Extended National Consumer Price Index), which measures inflation in Brazil.
According to IBGE data, inflation between 2020 and 2025 totaled 31.46%. Therefore, the figures indicate that both transacted prices and market rents outpaced inflation in this five-year window.
At first glance, these numbers paint a healthy picture of market performance. But when the time frame is extended, the broader view reveals long-term stagnation and a less favorable overall outcome.
A less favorable scenario
There are two periods to consider: the past five years — as outlined above — and the past ten years. In the longer-term scenario, transacted rents have underperformed inflation, unlike the more recent period.
Over the past decade, inflation rose 80%, while transacted prices increased only 54.46%. The stagnation is evident: in 2015, the average transacted rent was R$20.18/sqm; by 2022, that figure had dropped to R$19.27/sqm. Rather than rising, rents regressed.
Visually, the average rent chart reveals that prices remained nearly flat for years, only picking up more significantly from 2023 onward. In contrast, the inflation curve followed a consistent upward path.
Outpaced by inflation
On the other hand, vacancy rates and absorption indicators have remained positive. Over the past decade, vacant space has steadily decreased, while new leases and new supply have grown.
It was in 2023 that the landscape began to shift. The rise of major e-commerce players, economic expansion, and stronger demand for logistics space led to price increases driven by supply and demand — not inflation.
In this context, rent hikes were not necessarily tied to the IPCA but rather to market dynamics — a natural form of self-regulation, more economic than monetary.
Taking a broader perspective, leases signed ten years ago saw adjustments below inflation. While the past five years show market growth above inflation, it still lags behind the full appreciation potential the sector could have achieved.
